Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS62 KMLB 271045
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- An active weather pattern persists into next week, with a
  Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather today.

- Hot temperatures and increasing humidity will lead to peak heat
  indices 100 to 105 degrees. Proper precautions should be taken
  to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Today-Tonight...The Atlantic ridge drifts westward towards the
Florida peninsula today, with a mid/upper level low near the
Alabama, Georgia, panhandle area. The increasing proximity of the
ridge will lead to generally light (10 mph or less) south to
southwesterly flow today. Prevailing flow will limit the inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze, keeping it pinned to the
coastal counties through the afternoon. Thus, a sea breeze
collision is forecast over the eastern half of the peninsula this
afternoon into this evening. High coverage (PoPs 60-70%) of
showers and storms is expected across the area today, aided by
PWATs ~1.8-2". The forecast area remains outlooked in a Marginal
Risk (1/5) for severe weather due to the threat for gusty winds.
DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg today thanks to slightly drier air
in the mid-levels thanks to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
support the threat for a few wind gusts up to 60 mph, especially
along the sea breeze collision. Additional threats will be lightning
strikes and small hail (500 mb temperatures warming from -9C to
-8C through the day). However, convection will be slow moving
today, with steering flow 10-15 mph. Thus, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible and quick accumulations of 1-3" in a short period
of time may lead to minor flooding. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out along any boundary collisions.

Showers and storms are forecast to begin developing by early
afternoon. Then, continuing boundary collisions are expected to
maintain development into the evening hours. Convection may linger
as late as around 10pm before diminishing. Drier conditions are
then expected for the remainder of the overnight hours. Prior to
convection, high temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s.
Increased moisture will lead to peak heat indices between 99-103
degrees.

The Weekend...The Atlantic ridge elongates through the weekend,
draping its ridge axis over central Florida. Meanwhile, the upper
level low washes out/opens into a trough, as another upper level
low moves into the Bahamas. Locally, south to southwesterly flow
will continue to prevail, causing the sea breeze collision to take
place over the eastern/central Florida peninsula. Deep moisture
(PWATs up to 2") lingers over the area, maintaining high coverage
of showers and storms each afternoon and evening. PoPs 60-70%
through the weekend, with convection continuing into the late
evening hours. 500 mb temperatures around -8C and modest lapse
rates will help to moderate the severe weather threat. However,
strong storms will remain possible, especially along boundary
collisions, with wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and
lightning strikes. Slow storm motions will continue to lead to a
locally heavy rainfall threat. Should the same areas see multiple
rounds or days of heavy rainfall, those areas could progressively
increase the flooding rainfall threat. However, much of the area
remains in D0-D2 drought, so rainfall will be beneficial. Hot
temperatures continue, with highs in the lower 90s. Increasingly
humid conditions will lead to peak heat indices 100-105.

Next Week...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped over the local
area early next week, then is forecast to drift southward through
late week. Meanwhile, the second upper level low meanders around
the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. A summer-time pattern
will, therefore, continue, with south to southwesterly winds
supporting a continued collision over the forecast area. High
coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms is expected to
continue into the holiday weekend, with PoPs 60-70% each day. Heat
will remain a concern due to humid conditions and heat indices
100-105 degrees. Residents and visitors should continue to use
caution if spending prolonged periods outside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail. There will be an
increased threat for offshore moving showers and storms this
weekend into next week during the mid afternoon to evening hours,
as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts and the east coast sea breeze
becomes less dominant. High coverage of showers and storms is
forecast each day. A few storms could be strong to marginally
severe as they approach the coast, especially today. Storm
hazards include lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy
downpours. South to southwest winds prevailing into next week,
remaining less than 15 kts. However, will see winds become
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Low confidence in convective evolution, and timing of VCTS and
TEMPOs for TSRA is a compromise between HREF, HRRR, and ARW
guidance. HRRR has been consistent that last few runs with an
early start to convection INVOF KSUA around 16Z, triggering
additional development northward along the coast through the early
afternoon, and scattered weak echoes already showing up on KMLB
radar at 1030Z add credibility to this scenario. Timing for inland
terminals based largely on HREF probabilities, which do match up
well with recent HRRR guidance calling for a sea breeze collision
INVOF the Orlando Metro Area around 21Z-22Z. There is potential
for convection to develop along the Treasure Coast as early as
14Z-15Z, which would throw off timing across all ECFL terminals as
outflow pushes inland, so will need to closely monitor trends
over the next few hours. Winds light/VRB early this morning become
light S-SSW. Without convection expect the ECSB to develop
16Z-18Z, shifting winds SSE-SE around 10 kts, but outflow could
disrupt development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  91  73 /  60  40  70  40
MCO  92  74  93  75 /  70  40  70  40
MLB  89  74  90  73 /  70  40  70  50
VRB  91  72  91  71 /  70  40  70  40
LEE  91  74  91  75 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  93  74  93  75 /  70  40  70  40
ORL  92  76  93  75 /  70  40  70  40
FPR  89  72  90  71 /  70  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley